AS MUCH of Europe's airspace has been shut down and the towering fountain of ash from an Icelandic volcano shows no signs of letting up, questions are being raised about the long-term impact on a continent trying to recover from recession.

With airports closed from Ireland to Ukraine, officials expressed hope that some air travel could resume today.

But the workings of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano were too mysterious to allow rational predictions. Winds pushed ash farther south and east on Saturday, as far as northern Italy.

Travellers scrambled to find accommodation or land routes home during what is the worst disruption in international air travel since World War II.

While the closing of airways has already laid waste to plans of industry, the arts and world leaders, the possibility that it could drag on for days, if not weeks, is raising concerns about the longer-term consequences for public health, military operations and the world economy.

The disaster is estimated to be costing airlines $US200 million a day. But the economic damage will roll through to farms, retail and nearly any business that depends on air cargo shipments. Fresh produce will spoil, and supermarkets in Europe will begin to run out.

''If it really drags on another week, that could be really serious,'' said Peter Westaway, chief economist for Europe at the Nomura investment bank. The shutdown could affect productivity, he said, if hundreds of thousands of people missed work or were not able to do business because they were stuck in limbo.

The shutdown has also affected US military operations. Supplies for Afghanistan have been disrupted, and a Pentagon spokeswoman said all medical evacuation flights from the region to Germany, where most injured soldiers are treated, were being diverted to Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland.

The World Health Organisation advised that as long as the ash remained in the upper atmosphere, increased health risk was unlikely. In Britain, where a layer of fine dust is covering large areas, authorities are advising people with respiratory problems to stay indoors or wear masks. But experts said most people had no reason to be alarmed. International transportation, however, was still what the front page of the French newspaper Le Parisien called ''La Grande Pagaille'' - the big mess. Europe's three largest airports - London Heathrow, Frankfurt and Paris-Charles de Gaulle - were all shut over the weekend, with officials hoping flights could resume some time today.

European airlines said up to 70 per cent of flights scheduled for Saturday were cancelled as backlogs increased. Some airlines were offering little compensation, leaving cash-strapped travellers to turn international airports into impromptu emergency shelters.

In Poland, the dignitary list dwindled for yesterday's state funeral for President Lech Kaczynski and his wife, who died in a plane crash on April 10.

Business on rail lines was booming, with extra trains and operating at standing-room only. Car rental agencies in Paris were running out of cars, and some taxi companies were scoring enormous fares such as the $US5600 being charged for a trip from Madrid to Paris.

Even FedEx abandoned its pledge to absolutely, positively get it there overnight, if ''there'' meant northern Europe. At least one major airline, Lufthansa, expressed frustration at what it called excessive caution by German authorities, who kept every airport closed over the weekend.

Global shutdown

Airspace closed: Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.

Partial closures: France (northern airspace, including Paris, closed until today), Italy (northern airspace closed until today), Norway (limited flights in north).

Flights operating: Portugal, Spain, Greece, Russia and Turkey.

NEW YORK TIMES, WASHINGTON POST

http://www.smh.com.au/world/volcano-puts-europes-economy-at-risk-20100419-snha.html